Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 20.828585 22.731314 24.846298 27.395732 30.419155 33.934718 38.400357
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 18.082818 20.585912 23.585715 27.533712 32.738619 39.603676 49.812459
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 16.075384 18.841961 22.339579 27.257813 34.321935 44.737295 62.854459
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 14.728455 17.660571 21.528948 27.277859 36.186540 50.803579 80.929107
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.608091 16.599699 20.677877 27.011643 37.471574 56.370705 102.687944
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.710241 15.721410 19.938015 26.735552 38.610506 62.111540 131.498139
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.981676 14.995499 19.313997 26.507630 39.736408 68.342591 172.436620
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.383679 14.395002 18.798908 26.356409 40.942287 75.413115 235.996152
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.770605 13.720798 18.099338 25.779607 41.155445 80.177937 310.423190
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.583117 13.653308 18.327251 26.848452 45.090576 98.375244 692.348730
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 10.152384 13.186881 17.870682 26.594850 46.007064 107.917495 1408.340039
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.823401 12.852504 17.597930 26.646546 47.675871 122.244078 8562.274033
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.535954 12.569778 17.396206 26.829338 49.814462 142.188503 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.261993 12.291533 17.179336 26.954366 51.880837 166.187207 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.948286 11.932438 16.795607 26.684719 52.772259 185.949940 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.703724 11.670444 16.561487 26.702596 54.565425 218.281518 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.437960 11.360383 16.220104 26.445127 55.436515 247.411958 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.190397 11.068164 15.891503 26.178431 56.224974 281.287406 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.966438 10.804462 15.597892 25.958323 57.137292 324.756458 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.767159 10.572693 15.348327 25.812289 58.303107 385.141576 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.527591 10.264520 14.940858 25.255244 57.778376 414.114291 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.499423 10.307519 15.188120 26.287203 63.950604 745.739312 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.320073 10.087657 14.925493 26.042438 64.756294 949.072552 NaN